Its been established that it is going to be hard to avert serious climate changes through stopping greenhouse gas emissions. The present goal falls short of the levels required to maintain the levels of global warming below the dangerous levels. For this to be succesful, the trend of rising emissions has to reversed followed by a sharp decrease as the century progresses. This has to be done immediately because delaying is bound to make it more expensive.
Results from studies published online project how much gas the greenhouses may emit by the turn of the century and how the climate will respond to the emissions. Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich together with his colleagues published information regarding model simulations known to maintain global warming levels below 2°C using the cheapest cost. (see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming for more information.) Over 193 models were discovered which put into consideration factors that influence the levels of greenhouse gases produced like technological advancement rate as far as efficient fuel burning is concerned, the quantity of fossil fuels present and the advancement in creation of renewable fuels. This data was fed into a model for climate to try and gauge how possible it was to avoid a dangerous warming.
Results predict tough periods in the future for stakeholders. The strategy likely to succeed is where the emissions peak this decade then decline soon after. The decline should be well on its way by 2020 reaching half the present emission levels by the year 2050. Just three of the 193 models were able to maintain the warming levels below the dangerous levels and they all require energy systems to help get rid of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. An example includes manufacturing biofuels then storing the carbon dioxide created in the ground.
Neil Edwards, a climate scientist, notes that very few models offer the future we all want. He agrees with Rogelj thatuncertainties created a need for people to be very innovative though this may still not be enough to guarantee success.